One website, which doesn’t quite match all your criteria, is https://longbets.org/bets/, which has bets from people like Warren Buffet, Scott Alexander, Ray Kurzweil, and Eric Schmidt
One website, which doesn’t quite match all your criteria, is https://longbets.org/bets/, which has bets from people like Warren Buffet, Scott Alexander, Ray Kurzweil, and Eric Schmidt