The “nature coin” complicates this experiment a lot. Also, it sounds like a source of inherent randomness in policy’s outcomes, i.e., aleatoric uncertainty, which is perhaps rarely or never the case for actual policies and therefore evaluating such policies ethically is unnatural: the brain is not trained to do this. When people discuss and think about the ethics of policies, even the epistemic uncertainty is often assumed away, though it is actually very common that we don’t know whether a potential policy will turn out good or bad.
Due to this, I would say I have a preference for the intervention E because it’s the only one which actually doesn’t depend on the “nature coin”.
Would I be right in interpreting your choice for E as a strong form of risk aversion that is stronger than any fairness considerations? Because E is also the only option that does not give everyone the same ex ante chance of belonging to the winners.
The “nature coin” complicates this experiment a lot. Also, it sounds like a source of inherent randomness in policy’s outcomes, i.e., aleatoric uncertainty, which is perhaps rarely or never the case for actual policies and therefore evaluating such policies ethically is unnatural: the brain is not trained to do this. When people discuss and think about the ethics of policies, even the epistemic uncertainty is often assumed away, though it is actually very common that we don’t know whether a potential policy will turn out good or bad.
Due to this, I would say I have a preference for the intervention E because it’s the only one which actually doesn’t depend on the “nature coin”.
Would I be right in interpreting your choice for E as a strong form of risk aversion that is stronger than any fairness considerations? Because E is also the only option that does not give everyone the same ex ante chance of belonging to the winners.
Thanks, @Roman, for your remark regarding the interpretation of the coin toss. I have added a PS to the post in reaction.