Technology in the nuclear weapon space is quickly evolving. I can imagine numerous scenarios where emerging technologies could lead to nuclear escalation and devastating conflict. For example, there are plausible scenarios involving a conflict that evolves from a cyber attack or cyber interference in nuclear command and control systems. During a moment of high tension, such an attack could trigger a nuclear response. This could also happen due to a cyber attack from a nonstate actor. Confusion about intent and attribution could lead to a breakdown in nuclear deterrence. Nuclear-armed states cannot completely prevent such scenarios (short of nuclear disarmament), but they can reduce their likelihood by agreeing to rules of the road that would prohibit cyber attacks against nuclear weapons and command and control and warning systems. Moreover, nuclear-armed states could conduct their own “failsafe reviews” to consider additional steps they could take unilaterally or potentially cooperatively to reduce the risk of unauthorized or miscalculated use of nuclear weapons.
For more on the risks and need for a fail-safe review process, see the recent Washington Postop-ed by NTI Co-Chairs Ernie Moniz and Sam Nunn.
Technology in the nuclear weapon space is quickly evolving. I can imagine numerous scenarios where emerging technologies could lead to nuclear escalation and devastating conflict. For example, there are plausible scenarios involving a conflict that evolves from a cyber attack or cyber interference in nuclear command and control systems. During a moment of high tension, such an attack could trigger a nuclear response. This could also happen due to a cyber attack from a nonstate actor. Confusion about intent and attribution could lead to a breakdown in nuclear deterrence. Nuclear-armed states cannot completely prevent such scenarios (short of nuclear disarmament), but they can reduce their likelihood by agreeing to rules of the road that would prohibit cyber attacks against nuclear weapons and command and control and warning systems. Moreover, nuclear-armed states could conduct their own “failsafe reviews” to consider additional steps they could take unilaterally or potentially cooperatively to reduce the risk of unauthorized or miscalculated use of nuclear weapons.
For more on the risks and need for a fail-safe review process, see the recent Washington Post op-ed by NTI Co-Chairs Ernie Moniz and Sam Nunn.