I agree that people’s takes in response to surveys are very sensitive to framing and hard to interpret. I was trying to gesture at the hypothesis that many people are skeptical of future technologies, afraid of job loss, don’t trust tech, etc, even if they do sincerely value loved ones. But anyway, that’s not a crux.
I think we basically agree here, overall? I agree that my arguments here are not sufficient to support a large pause for a small reduction in risk. I don’t consider this a core point of EA, but I’m not confident in that, and don’t think you’re too unreasonable for doing so
Though while I’m skeptical of the type of unilateral pause pushed for in EA, I am much more supportive of not actively pushing capabilities to be faster, since I think the arguments that pauses are distortionary and penalise safety motivated actors, don’t apply there, and most acceleration will diffuse across the ecosystem. This makes me guess that Mechanize is net negative, so I imagine this is also a point of disagreement between us.
I agree that people’s takes in response to surveys are very sensitive to framing and hard to interpret. I was trying to gesture at the hypothesis that many people are skeptical of future technologies, afraid of job loss, don’t trust tech, etc, even if they do sincerely value loved ones. But anyway, that’s not a crux.
I think we basically agree here, overall? I agree that my arguments here are not sufficient to support a large pause for a small reduction in risk. I don’t consider this a core point of EA, but I’m not confident in that, and don’t think you’re too unreasonable for doing so
Though while I’m skeptical of the type of unilateral pause pushed for in EA, I am much more supportive of not actively pushing capabilities to be faster, since I think the arguments that pauses are distortionary and penalise safety motivated actors, don’t apply there, and most acceleration will diffuse across the ecosystem. This makes me guess that Mechanize is net negative, so I imagine this is also a point of disagreement between us.