Think about how hard you would try to avoid getting the next wave of COVID if it turned out it had a 1% chance of killing you. Not even 1% conditional on you getting it; 1% unconditional. (So for concreteness, imagine that your doctor at the next checkup tells you that based on your blood type and DNA you actually have a 10% chance of dying from COVID if you were to get it, and based on your current default behavior and prevalence in the population it seems like you have a 10% chance of getting it before a better vaccine for your specific blood type is developed.)
Well, I claim, you personally are more than 1% likely to die of x-risk. (Because we all are.)
Think about how hard you would try to avoid getting the next wave of COVID if it turned out it had a 1% chance of killing you. Not even 1% conditional on you getting it; 1% unconditional. (So for concreteness, imagine that your doctor at the next checkup tells you that based on your blood type and DNA you actually have a 10% chance of dying from COVID if you were to get it, and based on your current default behavior and prevalence in the population it seems like you have a 10% chance of getting it before a better vaccine for your specific blood type is developed.)
Well, I claim, you personally are more than 1% likely to die of x-risk. (Because we all are.)