I am a bit surprised you (seemingly) missed my post https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/JvEHiKWWwtvT3YanA/givewell-misuses-discount-rates given the relevance is so clear from the title.
I haven’t thought about this more since writing it for the competition, but have no reason to think I was wrong then.
The simple idea I propose in that piece is that GiveWell should use a probability distribution over possible discount rates, and that this will meaningfully change the cost-effectiveness of deworming charities.
Hi Oscar,
Thanks for your comment. I’ve actually read your post and thought your points are valid! The reason why it is not mentioned in our report is that we agreed with GiveWell that this aspect of discount rates would be out of scope for this particular report (which does not mean it is not important).
OK makes sense thanks! As I understand GiveWell is interested in/working on incorporating distributions rather than point estimates in general so hopefully discount rates fit in with that work (I don’t have much context on what GiveWell’s plans actually are).
I am a bit surprised you (seemingly) missed my post https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/JvEHiKWWwtvT3YanA/givewell-misuses-discount-rates given the relevance is so clear from the title. I haven’t thought about this more since writing it for the competition, but have no reason to think I was wrong then. The simple idea I propose in that piece is that GiveWell should use a probability distribution over possible discount rates, and that this will meaningfully change the cost-effectiveness of deworming charities.
Hi Oscar, Thanks for your comment. I’ve actually read your post and thought your points are valid! The reason why it is not mentioned in our report is that we agreed with GiveWell that this aspect of discount rates would be out of scope for this particular report (which does not mean it is not important).
OK makes sense thanks! As I understand GiveWell is interested in/working on incorporating distributions rather than point estimates in general so hopefully discount rates fit in with that work (I don’t have much context on what GiveWell’s plans actually are).