I agree that one or two centuries is pretty plausible, but I think it starts getting quite wild within a few more. 300 years of 2% growth is ~380x. 400 years of 2% growth is ~3000x.
You pretty quickly reach at least a solar-system spanning civilization to be able to get there, and then quite quickly a galaxy-spanning one, and then you just can’t do it within the rules of known physics at all anymore. I agree that 2 centuries of 2% growth is not totally implausible without anything extremely wild happening, but all of that of course would still involve a huge amount of “historically unprecedented” things happening.
Is this about GDP growth or something else? Sustaining 2% GDP growth for a century (or a few) seems reasonably plausible?
I agree that one or two centuries is pretty plausible, but I think it starts getting quite wild within a few more. 300 years of 2% growth is ~380x. 400 years of 2% growth is ~3000x.
You pretty quickly reach at least a solar-system spanning civilization to be able to get there, and then quite quickly a galaxy-spanning one, and then you just can’t do it within the rules of known physics at all anymore. I agree that 2 centuries of 2% growth is not totally implausible without anything extremely wild happening, but all of that of course would still involve a huge amount of “historically unprecedented” things happening.
Makes sense.