Although I think Yarrow’s claim is that the LW community was not “particularly early on covid [and did not give] particularly wise advice.” I don’t think the rationality community saying things that were not at the time “obvious” undermines this conclusion as long as those things were also being said in a good number of other places at the same time.
Cummings was reading rationality material, so that had the chance to change his mind. He probably wasn’t reading (e.g.) the r/preppers subreddit, so its members could not get this kind of credit. (Another example: Kim Kardashian got Donald Trump to pardon Alice Marie Johnson and probably had some meaningful effect on his first administration’s criminal-justice reforms. This is almost certainty a reflection of her having access, not evidence that she is a first-rate criminal justice thinker or that her talking points were better than those of others supporting Johnson’s clemency bid.)
Although I think Yarrow’s claim is that the LW community was not “particularly early on covid [and did not give] particularly wise advice.” I don’t think the rationality community saying things that were not at the time “obvious” undermines this conclusion as long as those things were also being said in a good number of other places at the same time.
Cummings was reading rationality material, so that had the chance to change his mind. He probably wasn’t reading (e.g.) the r/preppers subreddit, so its members could not get this kind of credit. (Another example: Kim Kardashian got Donald Trump to pardon Alice Marie Johnson and probably had some meaningful effect on his first administration’s criminal-justice reforms. This is almost certainty a reflection of her having access, not evidence that she is a first-rate criminal justice thinker or that her talking points were better than those of others supporting Johnson’s clemency bid.)