Itâs quite a strange and interesting story, but I donât think it supports the case that LessWrong actually called covid earlier than others. Letâs get into the context a little bit.
First off, Dominic Cummings doesnât appear to be a credible person on covid-19, and seems to hold strange, fringe views. For example, in November 2024 he posted a long, conspiratorial tweet which included the following:
The Fauci network should be rolled up & retired en masse with some JAILED. And their media supportersâi.e most of the old mediaâdriven out of business.
Incidentally, Cummings also had a scandal in the UK around allegations that he inappropriately violated the covid-19 lockdown and subsequently wasnât honest about it (possibly lied about it). This also makes me a bit suspicious about his reliability.
This situation with Dominic Cummings reminds me a bit about how Donald Trumpâs staffers in the White House have talked about how itâs nearly impossible to get him to read their briefings, but heâs obsessed with watching Fox News. Unfortunately, the information a politician pays attention to and acts on is not necessarily the best information, or the source that conveyed that information first.
As mentioned in the post above, there were already mainstream experts like the CDC giving public warnings before the February 27, 2020 blog post that was republished on LessWrong on February 28. Is it possible Dominic Cummings was, for whatever reason, ignoring warnings from experts while, oddly, listening to them from bloggers? Is Cummingsâ narrative, in general, reliable?
I decided to take a look at the timeline of the UK governmentâs response to covid in March 2020. Thereâs an article from the BBC published on March 14, 2020, headlined, âCoronavirus: Some scientists say UK virus strategy is ârisking livesââ. Hereâs how the BBC article begins:
More than 200 scientists have written to the government urging them to introduce tougher measures to tackle the spread of Covid-19.
In an open letter, the 229 specialists in disciplines ranging from mathematics to geneticsâthough no leading experts in the science of the spread of diseasesâsay the UKâs current approach will put the NHS under additional stress and ârisk many more lives than necessaryâ.
The signatories also criticised comments made by Sir Patrick Vallance, the governmentâs chief scientific adviser, about managing the spread of the infection to make the population immune.
The Department of Health said Sir Patrickâs comments had been misinterpreted.
The scientistsâall from UK universitiesâalso questioned the governmentâs view that people would become fed up with restrictions if they were imposed too soon.
By putting in place social distancing measures now, the growth can be slowed down dramatically, and thousands of lives can be spared. We consider the social distancing measures taken as of today as insufficient, and we believe that additional and more restrictive measures should be taken immediately, as it is already happening in other countries across the world.
The BBC article also mentions another open letter, then signed by 200 behavioural scientists (eventually, signed by 680), challenging the governmentâs rationale for not instituting a lockdown yet. That letter opened for signatures on March 13, 2020 and closed for signatures on March 16, 2020.
First, note that this open letter calling for social distancing measures was published 16 days after the February 28, 2020 post on LessWrong and 17 days after the February 27, 2020 blog post it was republishing. If the UK government changed its thinking on or approach to covid-19 in the last few days of February or the first few days of March based on Dominic Cummings reading the blog posts he mentioned in that tweet, why was this open letter still necessary on March 14? What exactly is Cummings saying the bloggers convinced him to do, and when exactly did he do it?
Another quote from the March 14, 2020 BBC article:
On March 16, 2020, the UK government advised the public to avoid non-essential social contact. On March 23, 2020, the government announced a nationwide lockdown that officially took effect on March 26. Is it possible the UK governmentâs response was more influenced by mainstream experts than by bloggers?
Itâs quite a strange and interesting story, but I donât think it supports the case that LessWrong actually called covid earlier than others. Letâs get into the context a little bit.
First off, Dominic Cummings doesnât appear to be a credible person on covid-19, and seems to hold strange, fringe views. For example, in November 2024 he posted a long, conspiratorial tweet which included the following:
Incidentally, Cummings also had a scandal in the UK around allegations that he inappropriately violated the covid-19 lockdown and subsequently wasnât honest about it (possibly lied about it). This also makes me a bit suspicious about his reliability.
This situation with Dominic Cummings reminds me a bit about how Donald Trumpâs staffers in the White House have talked about how itâs nearly impossible to get him to read their briefings, but heâs obsessed with watching Fox News. Unfortunately, the information a politician pays attention to and acts on is not necessarily the best information, or the source that conveyed that information first.
As mentioned in the post above, there were already mainstream experts like the CDC giving public warnings before the February 27, 2020 blog post that was republished on LessWrong on February 28. Is it possible Dominic Cummings was, for whatever reason, ignoring warnings from experts while, oddly, listening to them from bloggers? Is Cummingsâ narrative, in general, reliable?
I decided to take a look at the timeline of the UK governmentâs response to covid in March 2020. Thereâs an article from the BBC published on March 14, 2020, headlined, âCoronavirus: Some scientists say UK virus strategy is ârisking livesââ. Hereâs how the BBC article begins:
The open letter says:
The BBC article also mentions another open letter, then signed by 200 behavioural scientists (eventually, signed by 680), challenging the governmentâs rationale for not instituting a lockdown yet. That letter opened for signatures on March 13, 2020 and closed for signatures on March 16, 2020.
First, note that this open letter calling for social distancing measures was published 16 days after the February 28, 2020 post on LessWrong and 17 days after the February 27, 2020 blog post it was republishing. If the UK government changed its thinking on or approach to covid-19 in the last few days of February or the first few days of March based on Dominic Cummings reading the blog posts he mentioned in that tweet, why was this open letter still necessary on March 14? What exactly is Cummings saying the bloggers convinced him to do, and when exactly did he do it?
Another quote from the March 14, 2020 BBC article:
On March 16, 2020, the UK government advised the public to avoid non-essential social contact. On March 23, 2020, the government announced a nationwide lockdown that officially took effect on March 26. Is it possible the UK governmentâs response was more influenced by mainstream experts than by bloggers?