The error bars on the Rethink Priorities’ welfare ranges are huge. They tell us very little, and making calculations based on them will tell you very little.
I have now added the 5th and 95th percentiles. Thanks for the nudge!
I think without some narrower error bars to back you up, making a post suggesting “welfare can be created more efficiently via small non-human animals” is probably net negative, because it has the negative impact of contributing to the EA community looking crazy without the positive impact of a well-supported argument.
I think the post is still beneficial, because I am not endorsing taking any specific actions to create welfare via small non-human animals. However, I think you have a good point, and I agree the post could plausibly be harmful (although my best guess is that it is beneficial!). I would only disagree with views strongly asserting that the post is harmful.
Hi Henry,
To be honest, that is a quite funny meme!
I have now added the 5th and 95th percentiles. Thanks for the nudge!
I think the post is still beneficial, because I am not endorsing taking any specific actions to create welfare via small non-human animals. However, I think you have a good point, and I agree the post could plausibly be harmful (although my best guess is that it is beneficial!). I would only disagree with views strongly asserting that the post is harmful.
PS: I upvoted your comment.