That’s cool you looked into the different companies that have been approved, I didn’t know which were using GMOs and which weren’t. The fact that (probably) 2⁄5 of them are using GM doesn’t update me from the 1⁄2 reference class though. My guess is that the nuance that only some cultivated meat companies use GM will be lost fairly quickly once it starts getting debated. Presumambly the non-GM companies are going to be emphasising that they don’t use GM, while the other companies will be saying GM is nothing to worry about, so it will be a confusing message for consumers.
And good point that the regions which are most anti-GMOs (e.g. Europe) will presumably be served by companies not using GM cultivated meat which lessens the badness of the GM thing.
I don’t know how much of a benefit the GM is for cultivated meat (I would guess a decent amount as otherwise they probably wouldn’t use it), so I’m not sure how disadvantaged the non-GM cultivated meat companies will be in the race. If it’s a big deal for scaling the technology then I guess the first products in supermarkets will be GMOs which would be a bad first impression.
Trump Approving Cultivated Meat
I don’t know what to make of the fact that this admin’s FDA is approving more than the previous admin, might just be that the technology is more developed now, or maybe this FDA is approving things faster generally. I guess cultivated meat still has a decent way to go before it will be in supermarkets, so even if this admin stopped approving new versions I’m not sure how much that would matter. I am more concerned by the general trend of the right-wing politicians spurning cultivated meat.
Other
I’d be interested in your thoughts on “some of the same reasons people dislike GMOs will mean they like cultivated meat”. In my mind they share a similar aesthetic of “unnatural, messing with nature, playing God, etc”
And good point that 2 of the 7 bans are not permanent, I missed that.
Your comments are giving me ideas for forecasting questions: - Will the first cultivated meat GMO product contain GMOs? - What percentage of the first 10 cultivated meats approved by US regulators will contain GMOs?
Are GMO cell lines important for scaling? I don’t know, but I agree it likely makes it easier. I need to look into this more.
Somebody to watch on this note is Meatly who is selling GMO-free cultivated meat pet food in Europe and Asia. And I have a somewhat uncertain belief cultivated pet food will reach larger scale faster than cultivated meat for humans so could be a preview.
Btw, found this map of GMO grown around the world (here)
Trump and Cultivated Meat
You have a valid point that they regulatory agencies are not more public-facing politicians, but it does show that the power dynamics in MAGA are far from completely against cultivated meat. (A little review of that here)
I have only done some searching, but it is worth noting CATO has came out against state bans, and Vivek Ramaswamy has been very pro it (though it is unclear me how much power he holds in MAGA, he might run for a governorship though).
It is worth noting some of those Republican officials who are doing things that seem part of the culture war, like mandated labels, also think it will become part of the American diet. “The way we’re headed, lab-grown meat is going to become a part of life whether we like it or not,” said Neyer, R-Shepherd. “But we have to make sure people have the ability to choose whether they consume it or not.” (source)
Btw, I would appreciate it if you would consider making a forecast related to state bans—see here. Your view point would make a healthy counter to my more bullish views.
Other
A big reason why people don’t like GMOs is because of their associations with pesticides and chemicals, and the concern about pesticides is much more general than GMOs. RFK Jr. said cultivated meat was “pesticide-laden ingredients” which is absurd. Why would you need pesticides when the food is grown in a sparking clean lab? Especially compared to the all the crops animals need to eat.
So pesticides and chemicals, specifically the lack of coming in contact with them, could be a very large selling point for some of the public (5% to 20% i would guess). A decent portion of Americans are reasonable and aren’t anti-vax, and would be open to hearing out this line of persuasion in my opinion.
Thanks for your comments!
GM in Cultivated Meat
That’s cool you looked into the different companies that have been approved, I didn’t know which were using GMOs and which weren’t. The fact that (probably) 2⁄5 of them are using GM doesn’t update me from the 1⁄2 reference class though. My guess is that the nuance that only some cultivated meat companies use GM will be lost fairly quickly once it starts getting debated. Presumambly the non-GM companies are going to be emphasising that they don’t use GM, while the other companies will be saying GM is nothing to worry about, so it will be a confusing message for consumers.
And good point that the regions which are most anti-GMOs (e.g. Europe) will presumably be served by companies not using GM cultivated meat which lessens the badness of the GM thing.
I don’t know how much of a benefit the GM is for cultivated meat (I would guess a decent amount as otherwise they probably wouldn’t use it), so I’m not sure how disadvantaged the non-GM cultivated meat companies will be in the race. If it’s a big deal for scaling the technology then I guess the first products in supermarkets will be GMOs which would be a bad first impression.
Trump Approving Cultivated Meat
I don’t know what to make of the fact that this admin’s FDA is approving more than the previous admin, might just be that the technology is more developed now, or maybe this FDA is approving things faster generally. I guess cultivated meat still has a decent way to go before it will be in supermarkets, so even if this admin stopped approving new versions I’m not sure how much that would matter. I am more concerned by the general trend of the right-wing politicians spurning cultivated meat.
Other
I’d be interested in your thoughts on “some of the same reasons people dislike GMOs will mean they like cultivated meat”. In my mind they share a similar aesthetic of “unnatural, messing with nature, playing God, etc”
And good point that 2 of the 7 bans are not permanent, I missed that.
Approved GMO Cultivated Meat
Your comments are giving me ideas for forecasting questions:
- Will the first cultivated meat GMO product contain GMOs?
- What percentage of the first 10 cultivated meats approved by US regulators will contain GMOs?
Are GMO cell lines important for scaling? I don’t know, but I agree it likely makes it easier. I need to look into this more.
Somebody to watch on this note is Meatly who is selling GMO-free cultivated meat pet food in Europe and Asia. And I have a somewhat uncertain belief cultivated pet food will reach larger scale faster than cultivated meat for humans so could be a preview.
Btw, found this map of GMO grown around the world (here)
Trump and Cultivated Meat
You have a valid point that they regulatory agencies are not more public-facing politicians, but it does show that the power dynamics in MAGA are far from completely against cultivated meat. (A little review of that here)
I have only done some searching, but it is worth noting CATO has came out against state bans, and Vivek Ramaswamy has been very pro it (though it is unclear me how much power he holds in MAGA, he might run for a governorship though).
It is worth noting some of those Republican officials who are doing things that seem part of the culture war, like mandated labels, also think it will become part of the American diet. “The way we’re headed, lab-grown meat is going to become a part of life whether we like it or not,” said Neyer, R-Shepherd. “But we have to make sure people have the ability to choose whether they consume it or not.” (source)
Btw, I would appreciate it if you would consider making a forecast related to state bans—see here. Your view point would make a healthy counter to my more bullish views.
Other
A big reason why people don’t like GMOs is because of their associations with pesticides and chemicals, and the concern about pesticides is much more general than GMOs. RFK Jr. said cultivated meat was “pesticide-laden ingredients” which is absurd. Why would you need pesticides when the food is grown in a sparking clean lab? Especially compared to the all the crops animals need to eat.
So pesticides and chemicals, specifically the lack of coming in contact with them, could be a very large selling point for some of the public (5% to 20% i would guess). A decent portion of Americans are reasonable and aren’t anti-vax, and would be open to hearing out this line of persuasion in my opinion.