It seems plausible that J/309/etc advocates knew at some point that the initiatives were very unlikely to pass, and that low financial investment from that juncture onward was thus more a consequence of low public support earlier in the campaign season more than a cause of low public support.
Does anyone have information that could evaluate that possibility, such as longitudinal records of spending and polling outcomes?
Yes, we did polling when we were preparing for Measure J. We paid a professional polling service (phone and texting polls) and also collected data in face-to-face interviews with voters in Sonoma County. We also used Survey Monkey to do a poll. All 3 polling methods that we used before commencing Measure J showed that more than 50% of voters in Sonoma County would vote Yes on Measure J. That’s why we decided to even proceed with Measure J.
It seems plausible that J/309/etc advocates knew at some point that the initiatives were very unlikely to pass, and that low financial investment from that juncture onward was thus more a consequence of low public support earlier in the campaign season more than a cause of low public support.
Does anyone have information that could evaluate that possibility, such as longitudinal records of spending and polling outcomes?
Yes, we did polling when we were preparing for Measure J. We paid a professional polling service (phone and texting polls) and also collected data in face-to-face interviews with voters in Sonoma County. We also used Survey Monkey to do a poll. All 3 polling methods that we used before commencing Measure J showed that more than 50% of voters in Sonoma County would vote Yes on Measure J. That’s why we decided to even proceed with Measure J.