This seems quite correct! There quite a few open questions in my mind.
1) What is the chance Anthropic EAās either arenāt interested in donating or will spread their donations out across significant time? If they are EA, it seems unlikely that they will struggle to understand the ādonation timingā case.
2) What percent of the IPO do we expect to be donated? To which cause areas?
3) What is our estimate for how logarithmic the utility functions of common EA charities are?
4) Isnāt AI just predicting the next word? Why would Anthropic be able to make any money from this?
What is our estimate for how logarithmic the utility functions of common EA charities are?
The argument is less about how the value of the marginal dollar falls off, but instead about how smoother funding is usually much more valuable to projects. Imagine Iām trying to decide between donating $100k today and $100k in a year, or $200k today. If I expect everyone else together will be donating $1M today and $10M in a year, then I should probably pick the $200k today. The idea is that the charity can probably much more productively use $1.2M today and $10M in a year than $1.1M today and $10.1M in a year.
This seems quite correct! There quite a few open questions in my mind.
1) What is the chance Anthropic EAās either arenāt interested in donating or will spread their donations out across significant time? If they are EA, it seems unlikely that they will struggle to understand the ādonation timingā case.
2) What percent of the IPO do we expect to be donated? To which cause areas?
3) What is our estimate for how logarithmic the utility functions of common EA charities are?
4) Isnāt AI just predicting the next word? Why would Anthropic be able to make any money from this?
The argument is less about how the value of the marginal dollar falls off, but instead about how smoother funding is usually much more valuable to projects. Imagine Iām trying to decide between donating $100k today and $100k in a year, or $200k today. If I expect everyone else together will be donating $1M today and $10M in a year, then I should probably pick the $200k today. The idea is that the charity can probably much more productively use $1.2M today and $10M in a year than $1.1M today and $10.1M in a year.