Good note. Also worth keeping in mind the base rate of companies going under. FTX committing massive fraud was weird; but a young, fast-growing, unprofitable company blowing up was decidedly predictable, and IMO the EA community was banking too hard on FTX money being real.
Plus the planning fallacy, i.e., if someone says they want to do something by some date, then it’ll probably happen later than that.
My off-the-cuff guess is
30% chance Anthropic IPOs by end of 2028
20% chance Anthropic IPOs in 2029 or later
50% chance Anthropic never IPOs—because they go under for normal business-y reasons, or they build AGI first, or we’re all dead, or whatever
Good note. Also worth keeping in mind the base rate of companies going under. FTX committing massive fraud was weird; but a young, fast-growing, unprofitable company blowing up was decidedly predictable, and IMO the EA community was banking too hard on FTX money being real.
Plus the planning fallacy, i.e., if someone says they want to do something by some date, then it’ll probably happen later than that.
My off-the-cuff guess is
30% chance Anthropic IPOs by end of 2028
20% chance Anthropic IPOs in 2029 or later
50% chance Anthropic never IPOs—because they go under for normal business-y reasons, or they build AGI first, or we’re all dead, or whatever