I did a little more digging, and through a WHO report referenced by the Gates Foundation in their article, I think I’ve found something that could be the source of the claims in the report I skimmed.
Portnoy, A., et al. (2022). The cost and cost-effectiveness of novel tuberculosis vaccines in low- and middle-income countries: a modelling study. medRxiv, 2022.05.04.22274654. doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.05.04.22274654
Interestingly, the baseline scenario assumes a vaccine price similar to you, around 5 USD per dose in a 2-dose regiment, which in my naive reading seems to confirm that the bulk of the costs are in fact in logistics. Of course, the headline is that even if the costs here are higher than one would like, it’s still hugely cost-effective in terms of return on investment, and great news for the world as a whole!
Even if (on an extremely shallow read) it seems like it doesn’t quite cross GiveWell’s bar for cost-effectiveness. Unless I am confused about something. Again, if anyone knows if GiveWell has a take on this, I’d be very happy to see :)
I did a little more digging, and through a WHO report referenced by the Gates Foundation in their article, I think I’ve found something that could be the source of the claims in the report I skimmed.
Portnoy, A., et al. (2022). The cost and cost-effectiveness of novel tuberculosis vaccines in low- and middle-income countries: a modelling study. medRxiv, 2022.05.04.22274654. doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.05.04.22274654
Interestingly, the baseline scenario assumes a vaccine price similar to you, around 5 USD per dose in a 2-dose regiment, which in my naive reading seems to confirm that the bulk of the costs are in fact in logistics. Of course, the headline is that even if the costs here are higher than one would like, it’s still hugely cost-effective in terms of return on investment, and great news for the world as a whole!
Even if (on an extremely shallow read) it seems like it doesn’t quite cross GiveWell’s bar for cost-effectiveness. Unless I am confused about something. Again, if anyone knows if GiveWell has a take on this, I’d be very happy to see :)