In fact, they are much more uncertain than that. AI researchers and superforecasters tend to guess a range between around 20 and 90 years for the median year of AGI.
100 megaseconds (why that unit of measurement?) is 3 years and 2 months. 100 megaseconds from now is March 2029. This is way earlier than the median year of AGI guessed by AI researchers and superforecasters. It’s even earlier than Metaculus, which is disproportionately used by people who strongly believe in near-term AGI. Metaculus currently says 2033.
(My personal forecast, for whatever it’s worth, is a significantly less than 0.01%, or 1 in 10,000, chance of AGI by the end of 2035 and a ~95% chance that the AI industry is in a bubble that will pop sometime within the next ~5 years.)
In fact, they are much more uncertain than that. AI researchers and superforecasters tend to guess a range between around 20 and 90 years for the median year of AGI.
100 megaseconds (why that unit of measurement?) is 3 years and 2 months. 100 megaseconds from now is March 2029. This is way earlier than the median year of AGI guessed by AI researchers and superforecasters. It’s even earlier than Metaculus, which is disproportionately used by people who strongly believe in near-term AGI. Metaculus currently says 2033.
(My personal forecast, for whatever it’s worth, is a significantly less than 0.01%, or 1 in 10,000, chance of AGI by the end of 2035 and a ~95% chance that the AI industry is in a bubble that will pop sometime within the next ~5 years.)