Executive summary: This post reframes anthropic updates (SSA, SIA, ADT) as implementations of Anthropic Decision Theory (ADT), exploring how different methods of estimating the Decision-Relevance of possible worlds influence strategic decision-making, particularly regarding the density of Space-Faring Civilizations (SFCs).
Key points:
Defining Decision-Relevance (DR): DR quantifies how much a world influences marginal utility calculations, decomposing into three factors: world likelihood, normalized causal utility, and correlation with other agents.
Reframing anthropic updates as ADT implementations: Different anthropic theories can be expressed as world-weighting strategies in ADT, each defining Decision-Relevance Potential (DRP) differently.
New ADT implementations: The post introduces two novel ADT implementations—one dominated by approximate copies and another dominated by correlations with Space-Faring Civilization (SFC) Shapers.
Implications for world weighting: Various ADT implementations weight possible worlds differently based on the density of SFCs, with some (e.g., SFC Shaper-based) offering alternative perspectives on long-term impact.
Gaps in existing research: While previous work has applied some ADT implementations, important variations (such as those accounting for approximate copies or SFC Shapers) remain unexplored.
Strategic conclusions: For longtermist decision-making, incorporating correlation effects in ADT implementations may better capture the decision-relevance of different possible worlds.
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Executive summary: This post reframes anthropic updates (SSA, SIA, ADT) as implementations of Anthropic Decision Theory (ADT), exploring how different methods of estimating the Decision-Relevance of possible worlds influence strategic decision-making, particularly regarding the density of Space-Faring Civilizations (SFCs).
Key points:
Defining Decision-Relevance (DR): DR quantifies how much a world influences marginal utility calculations, decomposing into three factors: world likelihood, normalized causal utility, and correlation with other agents.
Reframing anthropic updates as ADT implementations: Different anthropic theories can be expressed as world-weighting strategies in ADT, each defining Decision-Relevance Potential (DRP) differently.
New ADT implementations: The post introduces two novel ADT implementations—one dominated by approximate copies and another dominated by correlations with Space-Faring Civilization (SFC) Shapers.
Implications for world weighting: Various ADT implementations weight possible worlds differently based on the density of SFCs, with some (e.g., SFC Shaper-based) offering alternative perspectives on long-term impact.
Gaps in existing research: While previous work has applied some ADT implementations, important variations (such as those accounting for approximate copies or SFC Shapers) remain unexplored.
Strategic conclusions: For longtermist decision-making, incorporating correlation effects in ADT implementations may better capture the decision-relevance of different possible worlds.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.