I think near-term AGI is highly unlikely (specifically, I think there’s significantly less than a 1 in 5,000 or 0.02% chance of AGI before the end of 2034) and I also think that claims about existential risk from AGI are poorly supported, but my impression of people in EA who do think near-term AGI is likely and do think x-risk from AGI is significant is that a lot of them have negative views on OpenAI. The EA community doesn’t have an organization that typically makes position statements on behalf of the community. The most straightforward way to get something like this going would be to post an open letter on the forum and ask people to sign on. Probably some people would sign it. (I wouldn’t.)
People in EA might be more reticent to denounce Anthropic, though, given that Holden Karnofsky now works there, Dustin Moskovitz of Good Ventures and Coefficient Giving (formerly Open Philanthropy) is an investor, Joe Carlsmith (formerly of Coefficient Giving) now works there, Amanda Askell has worked there for a while, and so on. Also, some people see Anthropic as the white hat to OpenAI’s black hat, even though there’s basically no difference (i.e. both just make chatbots and everything’s fine).
I think near-term AGI is highly unlikely (specifically, I think there’s significantly less than a 1 in 5,000 or 0.02% chance of AGI before the end of 2034) and I also think that claims about existential risk from AGI are poorly supported, but my impression of people in EA who do think near-term AGI is likely and do think x-risk from AGI is significant is that a lot of them have negative views on OpenAI. The EA community doesn’t have an organization that typically makes position statements on behalf of the community. The most straightforward way to get something like this going would be to post an open letter on the forum and ask people to sign on. Probably some people would sign it. (I wouldn’t.)
People in EA might be more reticent to denounce Anthropic, though, given that Holden Karnofsky now works there, Dustin Moskovitz of Good Ventures and Coefficient Giving (formerly Open Philanthropy) is an investor, Joe Carlsmith (formerly of Coefficient Giving) now works there, Amanda Askell has worked there for a while, and so on. Also, some people see Anthropic as the white hat to OpenAI’s black hat, even though there’s basically no difference (i.e. both just make chatbots and everything’s fine).