I think people are misusing the phrase “black swan” to mean “unlikely”, rather than “beyond the reach of normal expectations”. Predicting beforehand, I would have guessed FTX would go down via incompetence or exposure to other collapsing assets rather than direct fraud, but it certainly would have been on the list. I mean, cmon, these are pretty much unregulated offshore casinos.
I think people are misusing the phrase “black swan” to mean “unlikely”, rather than “beyond the reach of normal expectations”. Predicting beforehand, I would have guessed FTX would go down via incompetence or exposure to other collapsing assets rather than direct fraud, but it certainly would have been on the list. I mean, cmon, these are pretty much unregulated offshore casinos.