This excludes impact on animals (which I think might the major driver in the nearterm), and also longterm impacts. I used to consider the overall impact of GiveWell’s top charities robustly positive, but no longer do. I agree that, mathematically, E(“overall effect”) > 0 if:
“Overall effect” = “nearterm effect on humans” + “nearterm effect on animals” + “longterm effect”.
E(“nearterm effect on humans”) > 0.
E(“nearterm effect on animals” + “longterm effect”) = k E(“nearterm effect on humans”).
k = 0.
However, setting k to 0 seems pretty arbitrary. One could just as well set it to −1, in which case E(“overall effect”) = 0. Since I am not confident |k| << 1, I am not confident either about the sign of E(“overall effect”).
Hi David,
This excludes impact on animals (which I think might the major driver in the nearterm), and also longterm impacts. I used to consider the overall impact of GiveWell’s top charities robustly positive, but no longer do. I agree that, mathematically, E(“overall effect”) > 0 if:
“Overall effect” = “nearterm effect on humans” + “nearterm effect on animals” + “longterm effect”.
E(“nearterm effect on humans”) > 0.
E(“nearterm effect on animals” + “longterm effect”) = k E(“nearterm effect on humans”).
k = 0.
However, setting k to 0 seems pretty arbitrary. One could just as well set it to −1, in which case E(“overall effect”) = 0. Since I am not confident |k| << 1, I am not confident either about the sign of E(“overall effect”).