This excludes impact on animals (which I think might the major driver in the nearterm), and also longterm impacts. I used to consider the overall impact of GiveWellâs top charities robustly positive, but no longer do. I agree that, mathematically, E(âoverall effectâ) > 0 if:
âOverall effectâ = ânearterm effect on humansâ + ânearterm effect on animalsâ + âlongterm effectâ.
E(ânearterm effect on humansâ) > 0.
E(ânearterm effect on animalsâ + âlongterm effectâ) = k E(ânearterm effect on humansâ).
k = 0.
However, setting k to 0 seems pretty arbitrary. One could just as well set it to â1, in which case E(âoverall effectâ) = 0. Since I am not confident |k| << 1, I am not confident either about the sign of E(âoverall effectâ).
Hi David,
This excludes impact on animals (which I think might the major driver in the nearterm), and also longterm impacts. I used to consider the overall impact of GiveWellâs top charities robustly positive, but no longer do. I agree that, mathematically, E(âoverall effectâ) > 0 if:
âOverall effectâ = ânearterm effect on humansâ + ânearterm effect on animalsâ + âlongterm effectâ.
E(ânearterm effect on humansâ) > 0.
E(ânearterm effect on animalsâ + âlongterm effectâ) = k E(ânearterm effect on humansâ).
k = 0.
However, setting k to 0 seems pretty arbitrary. One could just as well set it to â1, in which case E(âoverall effectâ) = 0. Since I am not confident |k| << 1, I am not confident either about the sign of E(âoverall effectâ).