Thanks very much for all these great hypotheses. I think there is a reasonable chance that these effects will be true, but also that we don’t have strong evidence for any of them yet. I’ve split your comment into the following hypotheses, and tests that can be run to determine whether they are true:
Hypothesis 1: Spread rate will be similar to GWWC 10% pledge, at 10,000 members over 15 years of activity. GWWC currently have 15 employees, with a time averaged number of c. 10 employees. This puts the spread rate per employee at around 0.2 promisers per day, compared to the model’s current estimate of 3. This would lower the QALYs per dollar from 915 to 123. Test for hypothesis 1: monitor the spread rate per employee
Hypothesis 2: People gaming the system by becoming aware of the promise, but only taking the promise once they are in need, will be a significant effect. Test A for hypothesis 2: Employees record interactions with potential promisers and indicate what proportion of them seem likely to engage in this behaviour Test B for hypothesis 2: Monitor the spread rate by employees and by promisers directly, ignoring this intermediate variable
Hypothesis 3: There will be an overwhelming number of promisers without access to food, water, peace and shelter, which will lead to a high defection rate (above the 0.5% per day predicted in the model) Test A for hypothesis 3: Record the defection rate from the promise by running trials Test B for hypothesis 3: Observe the ratio of promisers who are able to give and promisers who are making requests for support
If you or anybody else would be interested in supporting the running any of these tests, please let me know.
Thanks very much for all these great hypotheses. I think there is a reasonable chance that these effects will be true, but also that we don’t have strong evidence for any of them yet. I’ve split your comment into the following hypotheses, and tests that can be run to determine whether they are true:
Hypothesis 1: Spread rate will be similar to GWWC 10% pledge, at 10,000 members over 15 years of activity. GWWC currently have 15 employees, with a time averaged number of c. 10 employees. This puts the spread rate per employee at around 0.2 promisers per day, compared to the model’s current estimate of 3. This would lower the QALYs per dollar from 915 to 123.
Test for hypothesis 1: monitor the spread rate per employee
Hypothesis 2: People gaming the system by becoming aware of the promise, but only taking the promise once they are in need, will be a significant effect.
Test A for hypothesis 2: Employees record interactions with potential promisers and indicate what proportion of them seem likely to engage in this behaviour
Test B for hypothesis 2: Monitor the spread rate by employees and by promisers directly, ignoring this intermediate variable
Hypothesis 3: There will be an overwhelming number of promisers without access to food, water, peace and shelter, which will lead to a high defection rate (above the 0.5% per day predicted in the model)
Test A for hypothesis 3: Record the defection rate from the promise by running trials
Test B for hypothesis 3: Observe the ratio of promisers who are able to give and promisers who are making requests for support
If you or anybody else would be interested in supporting the running any of these tests, please let me know.