Nice points, Holly! However, I think they only apply to small disagreements about AI timelines. I liked Epoch After Hoursā podcast episode Is it 3 Years, or 3 Decades Away? Disagreements on AGI Timelines by Ege Erdil and Matthew Barnett (linkpost). Ege has much longer timelines than the ones you seem to endorse (see text I bolded below), and is well informed. He is the 1st author of the paper about Epoch AIās compute-centric model of AI automation which was announced on 21 March 2025.
Ege
Yeah, I mean, I guess one way to try to quantify this is when you expect, I donāt know, we often talk about big acceleration, economic growth. One way to quantify is when do you expect, maybe US GDP growth, maybe global GDP growth to be faster than 5% per year for a couple of years in a row. Maybe thatās one way to think about it. And then you can think about what is your median timeline until that happens. I think if you think about like that, I would maybe say more than 30 years or something. Maybe a bit less than 40 years by this point. So 35. Yeah. And Iām not sure, but I think you [Matthew Barnett] might say like 15 or 20 years.
Relatedly, the median expert in 2023 thought the median date of full automation to be 2073.
I remain open to betting up to 10 k$ against short AI timelines. I understand this does not work for people who think doom or utopia are certain soon after AGI, but I would say this is a super extreme view. It also reminds me of religious unbettable or unfalsiable views. Banks may offer loans with better conditions, but, as long as my bet is beneficial, one should take the bank loans until they are marginally neutral, and then also take my bet.
Nice points, Holly! However, I think they only apply to small disagreements about AI timelines. I liked Epoch After Hoursā podcast episode Is it 3 Years, or 3 Decades Away? Disagreements on AGI Timelines by Ege Erdil and Matthew Barnett (linkpost). Ege has much longer timelines than the ones you seem to endorse (see text I bolded below), and is well informed. He is the 1st author of the paper about Epoch AIās compute-centric model of AI automation which was announced on 21 March 2025.
Relatedly, the median expert in 2023 thought the median date of full automation to be 2073.
I remain open to betting up to 10 k$ against short AI timelines. I understand this does not work for people who think doom or utopia are certain soon after AGI, but I would say this is a super extreme view. It also reminds me of religious unbettable or unfalsiable views. Banks may offer loans with better conditions, but, as long as my bet is beneficial, one should take the bank loans until they are marginally neutral, and then also take my bet.
(I donāt particularly endorse any timeline, btw, partly bc I donāt think itās a decision-relevant question for me.)