I definitely agree there are plenty of ways we should reach elites and non-elites alike that aren’t statistical models of timelines, and insofar as the resources going towards timeline models (in terms of talent, funding, bandwidth) are fungible with the resources going towards other things, maybe I agree that more effort should be going towards the other things (but I’m not sure—I really think the timeline models have been useful for our community’s strategy and for informing other audiences).
But also, they only sometimes create a sense of panic; I could see specificity being helpful for people getting out of the mode of “it’s vaguely inevitable, nothing to be done, just gotta hope it all works out.” (Notably the timeline models sometimes imply longer timelines than the vibes coming out of the AI companies and Bay Area house parties.)
I definitely agree there are plenty of ways we should reach elites and non-elites alike that aren’t statistical models of timelines, and insofar as the resources going towards timeline models (in terms of talent, funding, bandwidth) are fungible with the resources going towards other things, maybe I agree that more effort should be going towards the other things (but I’m not sure—I really think the timeline models have been useful for our community’s strategy and for informing other audiences).
But also, they only sometimes create a sense of panic; I could see specificity being helpful for people getting out of the mode of “it’s vaguely inevitable, nothing to be done, just gotta hope it all works out.” (Notably the timeline models sometimes imply longer timelines than the vibes coming out of the AI companies and Bay Area house parties.)