One example of timelines feeling very decision-relevant is for people who are looking to specialise in partisan influence, you might want to specialise far more in Republicans the larger your credence in TAI/​ASI by Jan 2029. Whereas for longer timelines on priors Democrats have a ~50% chance of controlling the presidency from 2029, so specialising in Dem political comms could make more sense.
I think I directionally agree!
One example of timelines feeling very decision-relevant is for people who are looking to specialise in partisan influence, you might want to specialise far more in Republicans the larger your credence in TAI/​ASI by Jan 2029. Whereas for longer timelines on priors Democrats have a ~50% chance of controlling the presidency from 2029, so specialising in Dem political comms could make more sense.