To be honest I did not read the post, I just looked at the poll questions. I was thinking of AGI in the way I would define it*, or as the other big Metaculus AGI question defines it. For the “weakly general AI” question, yeah I think 50% chance is fair, maybe even higher than 50%.
*I don’t have a precise definition but I think of it as an AI that can do pretty much any intellectual task that an average human can do
To be honest I did not read the post, I just looked at the poll questions. I was thinking of AGI in the way I would define it*, or as the other big Metaculus AGI question defines it. For the “weakly general AI” question, yeah I think 50% chance is fair, maybe even higher than 50%.
*I don’t have a precise definition but I think of it as an AI that can do pretty much any intellectual task that an average human can do
Yeah that’s fair. I’m a lot more bullish on getting AI systems that satisfy the linked question’s definition than my own one.