I agree with a bunch of the standard arguments against this, but I’ll throw in two more that I haven’t seen fleshed out as much:
The intuitive definition of AGI includes some physical capabilities (and even ones that nominally exclude physical capabilities probably necessitate some), and we seem really far behind on where I would expect AI systems to be in manipulating physical objects.
AIs make errors in systematically different ways than humans, and often have major vulnerabilities. This means we’ll probably want AI that works with humans in every step, and so will want more specialized AI. I don’t really buy some arguments that I’ve seen against this but I don’t know enough to have a super confident rebuttal.
Hmm it seems like the Metaculus poll linked is actually on a random selection of benchmarks being arbitrarily defined as a weakly general intelligence. If I have to go with the poll resolution, I think there’s a much greater chance (not going to look into how difficult the Atari game thing would be yet, so not sure how much greater).
I agree with a bunch of the standard arguments against this, but I’ll throw in two more that I haven’t seen fleshed out as much:
The intuitive definition of AGI includes some physical capabilities (and even ones that nominally exclude physical capabilities probably necessitate some), and we seem really far behind on where I would expect AI systems to be in manipulating physical objects.
AIs make errors in systematically different ways than humans, and often have major vulnerabilities. This means we’ll probably want AI that works with humans in every step, and so will want more specialized AI. I don’t really buy some arguments that I’ve seen against this but I don’t know enough to have a super confident rebuttal.
Hmm it seems like the Metaculus poll linked is actually on a random selection of benchmarks being arbitrarily defined as a weakly general intelligence. If I have to go with the poll resolution, I think there’s a much greater chance (not going to look into how difficult the Atari game thing would be yet, so not sure how much greater).