I think the numbers work out assuming x-risk means (almost) everyone being killed and the percent reduction is absolute (percentage point), not relative:
My concern is not that the numbers don’t work out. My concern is that the “$100m/0.01%” figure is not an estimate of how cost-effective ‘general x-risk prevention’ actually is in the way that this post implies.
It’s not an empirical estimate, it’s a proposed funding threshold, i.e. an answer to Linch’s question “How many EA 2021 $s would you trade off against a 0.01% chance of existential catastrophe?” But saying that we should fund interventions at that level of cost-effectiveness doesn’t say whether are many (or any) such interventions available at the moment. If I say “I propose that GiveWell should endorse interventions that we expect to save a life per $500”, that doesn’t by itself show whether such interventions exist.
Of course, the proposed funding threshold could be informed by cost-effectiveness estimates for specific interventions; I actually suspect that it is. But then it would be useful to see those estimates – or at the very least know which interventions they are – before establishing that figure as the ‘funding bar’ in this analysis.
This is particularly relevant if those estimates are based on interventions that do not prevent catastrophic events but merely prevent them from reaching existential/extinction levels, as the latter category does not affect all currently living people, meaning that ‘8 billion people’ would be the wrong number for the estimation you wrote above.
I agree with your points. I was responding to this point, but should have quoted it to be clearer:
“But I think that the willingness to pay from Linch is based on accounting for future lives, rather than the kind of currently-alive-human-life-equivalent-saved figure that you’re looking for.”
I think the numbers can work out without considering future lives or at least anything other than deaths.
I think the numbers work out assuming x-risk means (almost) everyone being killed and the percent reduction is absolute (percentage point), not relative:
$100,000,000 / (0.01% * 8 billion people) = $125/person
Thanks for your reply.
My concern is not that the numbers don’t work out. My concern is that the “$100m/0.01%” figure is not an estimate of how cost-effective ‘general x-risk prevention’ actually is in the way that this post implies.
It’s not an empirical estimate, it’s a proposed funding threshold, i.e. an answer to Linch’s question “How many EA 2021 $s would you trade off against a 0.01% chance of existential catastrophe?” But saying that we should fund interventions at that level of cost-effectiveness doesn’t say whether are many (or any) such interventions available at the moment. If I say “I propose that GiveWell should endorse interventions that we expect to save a life per $500”, that doesn’t by itself show whether such interventions exist.
Of course, the proposed funding threshold could be informed by cost-effectiveness estimates for specific interventions; I actually suspect that it is. But then it would be useful to see those estimates – or at the very least know which interventions they are – before establishing that figure as the ‘funding bar’ in this analysis.
This is particularly relevant if those estimates are based on interventions that do not prevent catastrophic events but merely prevent them from reaching existential/extinction levels, as the latter category does not affect all currently living people, meaning that ‘8 billion people’ would be the wrong number for the estimation you wrote above.
I agree with your points. I was responding to this point, but should have quoted it to be clearer:
“But I think that the willingness to pay from Linch is based on accounting for future lives, rather than the kind of currently-alive-human-life-equivalent-saved figure that you’re looking for.”
I think the numbers can work out without considering future lives or at least anything other than deaths.