It seems consistent for it to be true and for us not to know that it’s true.
That’s what I mean by value of information. My point is that there is high value of information in testing new interventions, and that OP/GW/CE are definitely doing this exploration, but that the community is adding very little to this exploration process. What little innovation there has been in EA GHD has been mostly top down and led by these organizations rather than based on collective research.
Gotcha. My guess is that’s funding- and culture-driven—my sense is EA community orgs have been put under substantial pressure to prioritise longtermist/AI stuff to a substantially greater degree than they used to.
That’s what I mean by value of information. My point is that there is high value of information in testing new interventions, and that OP/GW/CE are definitely doing this exploration, but that the community is adding very little to this exploration process. What little innovation there has been in EA GHD has been mostly top down and led by these organizations rather than based on collective research.
Gotcha. My guess is that’s funding- and culture-driven—my sense is EA community orgs have been put under substantial pressure to prioritise longtermist/AI stuff to a substantially greater degree than they used to.