Predictions of future technological changes and the effects of those
changes, made by Americans between 1890 and 1940, are compared to the actual outcomes. Overall, less than half of the predictions have been fulfilled or are in the process of fulfillment.
The accuracy of predictions appears at best weakly related to
general technical expertise, and unrelated to specific expertise.
One expert (or non-expert) appears to be as good a predictor as
another. Predictions of continuing status quo are not significantly
more or less accurate than predictions of change. Predictions of
the effects of technology are significantly less accurate than predictions of technological changes.
Thanks! I knew there was one major study I was missing from the 70s, and that I had emailed people about before, but I couldn’t track it down when I was writing this post, and I’m pretty sure this is the one I was thinking of. Of course, this study suffers from several of the problems I list in the post.
The accuracy of technological forecasts, 1890-1940 is a paper I happened to already know about that seems somewhat relevant but I didn’t see mentioned:
Thanks! I knew there was one major study I was missing from the 70s, and that I had emailed people about before, but I couldn’t track it down when I was writing this post, and I’m pretty sure this is the one I was thinking of. Of course, this study suffers from several of the problems I list in the post.