See the gpt-5 report. âWorking lower boundâ is maybe too strong; maybe itâs more accurate to describe it as an initial guess at a warning threshold for rogue replication and 10x uplift (if we can even measure time horizons that long). I donât know what the exact reasoning behind 40 hours was, but one fact is that humans canât really start viable companies using plans that only take a ~week of work. IMO if AIs could do the equivalent with only a 40 human hour time horizon and continuously evade detection, theyâd need to use their own advantages and have made up many current disadvantages relative to humans (like being bad at adversarial and multi-agent settings).
See the gpt-5 report. âWorking lower boundâ is maybe too strong; maybe itâs more accurate to describe it as an initial guess at a warning threshold for rogue replication and 10x uplift (if we can even measure time horizons that long). I donât know what the exact reasoning behind 40 hours was, but one fact is that humans canât really start viable companies using plans that only take a ~week of work. IMO if AIs could do the equivalent with only a 40 human hour time horizon and continuously evade detection, theyâd need to use their own advantages and have made up many current disadvantages relative to humans (like being bad at adversarial and multi-agent settings).