I’m aware of zdgroff’s analysis. In the context of my analysis, I guess it would inform how long the ban of fur farming in Poland might last. But the possibility of fur farming being banned in Poland and then the ban being lifted some years later hadn’t even occurred to me. I am much more worried about production moving to other countries to meet the same demand, as this has happened before. I imagine that investors into fur farming would choose to build farms in one of the many countries that allow fur farming, rather than lobby a country like Poland to rescind its ban.
Actually, it is also relevant for a possible EU cage-free ban. I can imagine that ban being rescinded. I don’t think this consideration would affect the results of my estimate much, though it does complicate thinking about how many years impact lasts a little bit.
Thank you for an interesting comment.
I’m aware of zdgroff’s analysis. In the context of my analysis, I guess it would inform how long the ban of fur farming in Poland might last. But the possibility of fur farming being banned in Poland and then the ban being lifted some years later hadn’t even occurred to me. I am much more worried about production moving to other countries to meet the same demand, as this has happened before. I imagine that investors into fur farming would choose to build farms in one of the many countries that allow fur farming, rather than lobby a country like Poland to rescind its ban.
Actually, it is also relevant for a possible EU cage-free ban. I can imagine that ban being rescinded. I don’t think this consideration would affect the results of my estimate much, though it does complicate thinking about how many years impact lasts a little bit.