No, I did not think about the effects you listed when choosing these numbers, at least not explicitly. I don’t remember what exactly went through my head when I imputed these numbers. I think I was just trying to imagine what a chicken production graph would look like with or without campaign. Naively thinking, blocking a farm would postpone the production by at least 1-2 years, because that’s how long it probably takes to get planning permits and build a farm. But 1-2 years felt like too optimistic though, so I was conservative, but probably not conservative enough.
Either way, those figures of years of impact are guesses in the spirit of If It’s Worth Doing, It’s Worth Doing With Made-Up Statistics, not estimates. I was supposed to finish the project and had no idea how to estimate these things, so I entered somewhat random numbers. Please don’t take them seriously. I think you would be much better off ignoring them, and coming up with a new estimate from scratch. Clearly you are thinking about this much more deeply than I was.
No, I did not think about the effects you listed when choosing these numbers, at least not explicitly. I don’t remember what exactly went through my head when I imputed these numbers. I think I was just trying to imagine what a chicken production graph would look like with or without campaign. Naively thinking, blocking a farm would postpone the production by at least 1-2 years, because that’s how long it probably takes to get planning permits and build a farm. But 1-2 years felt like too optimistic though, so I was conservative, but probably not conservative enough.
Either way, those figures of years of impact are guesses in the spirit of If It’s Worth Doing, It’s Worth Doing With Made-Up Statistics, not estimates. I was supposed to finish the project and had no idea how to estimate these things, so I entered somewhat random numbers. Please don’t take them seriously. I think you would be much better off ignoring them, and coming up with a new estimate from scratch. Clearly you are thinking about this much more deeply than I was.
Thanks for the context, Saulius!