One potential crux here is: in what percentage of potential universes should my runway be long enough? 100 percent is impossible, and 99.999999 percent is impossible too, with a possible exception for HNW individuals.
One potential diagnostic here (in general, not commenting on anyone’s particular situation): if someone concludes that they need a very high coverage runway, how much of their current income are they devoting to getting there?
If I conclude that I needed 99 percent coverage, the risk of the runway not being complete when I needed it would be significantly higher than the risk of the completed runway proving insufficient. Is the amount I’m contributing to my runway fund consistent with that risk assessment, or am I spending a lot on Ubers and takeout, nice gyms and wines, etc.? If someone who is currently earning is stowing away a large fraction of their current income into runway, that is a costly signal that they really do prioritize the risk of insufficient runway, and are less likely to be engaged in motivated reasoning when they decide not to donate much now due to runway concerns.
One potential crux here is: in what percentage of potential universes should my runway be long enough? 100 percent is impossible, and 99.999999 percent is impossible too, with a possible exception for HNW individuals.
One potential diagnostic here (in general, not commenting on anyone’s particular situation): if someone concludes that they need a very high coverage runway, how much of their current income are they devoting to getting there?
If I conclude that I needed 99 percent coverage, the risk of the runway not being complete when I needed it would be significantly higher than the risk of the completed runway proving insufficient. Is the amount I’m contributing to my runway fund consistent with that risk assessment, or am I spending a lot on Ubers and takeout, nice gyms and wines, etc.? If someone who is currently earning is stowing away a large fraction of their current income into runway, that is a costly signal that they really do prioritize the risk of insufficient runway, and are less likely to be engaged in motivated reasoning when they decide not to donate much now due to runway concerns.