Itâs true that we arenât powered to detect very small changes on any test. We did a fair bit of background work to target 5 pp. as our SESOI based on our understanding of what we could plausibly take to restaurants as an argument that they should add a chicken-based PMA to their menus.
if One were to have introduced a more more popular set of plant-based products it remains possible that these indeed would have substituted for the animal products.
Yes, that is possible. Our paper does not address what some other, more appealing thing would have done. However, taste parity is an open problem. My personal beliefâout of scope of the dataâis that we can think of consumers as extrapolating, when they see an item like âchicknâitas,â that itâll basically be the category average, or on par with the other PMAs currently available at Chipotle, and making a choice based on that belief. Unfortunately, PMAs account for a small fraction of all sales (3% per this out-of-date article but I couldnât find anything more up to date and official. However, based on 1-on-1 conversations, I think this number is still approximately right). Chipotle has tried many times to introduce more plant-based options. If a more popular and appealing option existed at the kind of margins that Chipotle looks for, we can assume they would have already made it available.
Regarding the chicken-vs-everything else split: the difference-in-difference CI ([â12.58, 0.73]) is wide, and we say in the paper that we canât resolve which meat the displacement came from, alas.
Itâs true that we arenât powered to detect very small changes on any test. We did a fair bit of background work to target 5 pp. as our SESOI based on our understanding of what we could plausibly take to restaurants as an argument that they should add a chicken-based PMA to their menus.
5 pp on the direct effect on total sales or some such? That does seem reasonable to me? That said, a Bayesian approach to decisionmaking and power analysis seems perhaps more relevant for taking to Chipotle etc. If you can tell them âgiven a range of reasonable priors, the posterior this has an 75% chance of increasing your revenue by 5%â that seems potentially likely to be convincing? @Jamie E probably has something to say on this.
> âplant-based meat and dairy are finally getting close to animal products on taste in some categories, but taste alone probably wonât make most Americans switchâ ⌠â the real missing ingredient is cultureâ > The author says meat and dairy have deep cultural meanings in the U.S.âmasculinity, tradition, family rituals, comfort, identity > Nectar found only about 16% of 122 plant-based meat products tested in 2025 and about 25% of 98 dairy-free products tested in 2026 cleared the âsame as or better than animal productâ
To me the 16% actually seems pretty good (we reported on the same thing here) the best of these products will command an overwhelming share, and the products are only getting better. My personal, unevidence take is that âthe culture of meat thingâ might fade away, or at least only be relevant to say half the population .
> My personal beliefâout of scope of the dataâis that we can think of consumers as extrapolating, when they see an item like âchicknâitas,â that itâll basically be the category average, or on par with the other PMAs currently available at Chipotle, and making a choice based on that belief.
That seems reasonable to me.
> Unfortunately, PMAs account for a small fraction of all sales (3% per this out-of-date article but I couldnât find anything more up to date and official. However, based on 1-on-1 conversations, I think this number is still approximately right). Chipotle has tried many times to introduce more plant-based options. If a more popular and appealing option existed at the kind of margins that Chipotle looks for, we can assume they would have already made it available.
My guess is that itâs substantially higher than 3% as itâs taking up a pretty large portion of their counter space, so why would they do that for 3%? (Unless the directors of Chipotle themselves have an altruistic motive.) Based on products weâve all eaten, I guess itâs safe to say that they could come up with something plant-based thatâs tastier than the sofritas (which are OK), but it may not be profitable.
âa Bayesian approach to decisionmaking and power analysis seems perhaps more relevant for taking to Chipotle etc. If you can tell them âgiven a range of reasonable priors, the posterior this has an 75% chance of increasing your revenue by 5%â that seems potentially likely to be convincing? @Jamie E probably has something to say on this.â
Yes you could do that in principle, though I think the frequentist way theyâve done things in the publication is reasonable. I donât think this study speaks directly to the idea of increasing revenue (I guess there could be an implication for profit if the shifts the menu option causes result in more or less costly ingredients being chosen) - but for increasing revenue I think an alternative sort of experiment might be needed where youâd see if people were more or less likely to select the whole restaurant as opposed to other options depending on the presence of plant-based options. I suspect that would be more interesting to Chipotle than an altrustic motivation of reducing the amount of chicken eaten
Hi David,
Itâs true that we arenât powered to detect very small changes on any test. We did a fair bit of background work to target 5 pp. as our SESOI based on our understanding of what we could plausibly take to restaurants as an argument that they should add a chicken-based PMA to their menus.
Yes, that is possible. Our paper does not address what some other, more appealing thing would have done. However, taste parity is an open problem. My personal beliefâout of scope of the dataâis that we can think of consumers as extrapolating, when they see an item like âchicknâitas,â that itâll basically be the category average, or on par with the other PMAs currently available at Chipotle, and making a choice based on that belief. Unfortunately, PMAs account for a small fraction of all sales (3% per this out-of-date article but I couldnât find anything more up to date and official. However, based on 1-on-1 conversations, I think this number is still approximately right). Chipotle has tried many times to introduce more plant-based options. If a more popular and appealing option existed at the kind of margins that Chipotle looks for, we can assume they would have already made it available.
Regarding the chicken-vs-everything else split: the difference-in-difference CI ([â12.58, 0.73]) is wide, and we say in the paper that we canât resolve which meat the displacement came from, alas.
5 pp on the direct effect on total sales or some such? That does seem reasonable to me? That said, a Bayesian approach to decisionmaking and power analysis seems perhaps more relevant for taking to Chipotle etc. If you can tell them âgiven a range of reasonable priors, the posterior this has an 75% chance of increasing your revenue by 5%â that seems potentially likely to be convincing? @Jamie E probably has something to say on this.
> However, taste parity is an open problem.
Paywalled link, but ChatGPT excerpts say
> âplant-based meat and dairy are finally getting close to animal products on taste in some categories, but taste alone probably wonât make most Americans switchâ ⌠â the real missing ingredient is cultureâ
> The author says meat and dairy have deep cultural meanings in the U.S.âmasculinity, tradition, family rituals, comfort, identity
> Nectar found only about 16% of 122 plant-based meat products tested in 2025 and about 25% of 98 dairy-free products tested in 2026 cleared the âsame as or better than animal productâ
To me the 16% actually seems pretty good (we reported on the same thing here) the best of these products will command an overwhelming share, and the products are only getting better. My personal, unevidence take is that âthe culture of meat thingâ might fade away, or at least only be relevant to say half the population .
> My personal beliefâout of scope of the dataâis that we can think of consumers as extrapolating, when they see an item like âchicknâitas,â that itâll basically be the category average, or on par with the other PMAs currently available at Chipotle, and making a choice based on that belief.
That seems reasonable to me.
> Unfortunately, PMAs account for a small fraction of all sales (3% per this out-of-date article but I couldnât find anything more up to date and official. However, based on 1-on-1 conversations, I think this number is still approximately right). Chipotle has tried many times to introduce more plant-based options. If a more popular and appealing option existed at the kind of margins that Chipotle looks for, we can assume they would have already made it available.
My guess is that itâs substantially higher than 3% as itâs taking up a pretty large portion of their counter space, so why would they do that for 3%? (Unless the directors of Chipotle themselves have an altruistic motive.) Based on products weâve all eaten, I guess itâs safe to say that they could come up with something plant-based thatâs tastier than the sofritas (which are OK), but it may not be profitable.
âa Bayesian approach to decisionmaking and power analysis seems perhaps more relevant for taking to Chipotle etc. If you can tell them âgiven a range of reasonable priors, the posterior this has an 75% chance of increasing your revenue by 5%â that seems potentially likely to be convincing? @Jamie E probably has something to say on this.â
Yes you could do that in principle, though I think the frequentist way theyâve done things in the publication is reasonable. I donât think this study speaks directly to the idea of increasing revenue (I guess there could be an implication for profit if the shifts the menu option causes result in more or less costly ingredients being chosen) - but for increasing revenue I think an alternative sort of experiment might be needed where youâd see if people were more or less likely to select the whole restaurant as opposed to other options depending on the presence of plant-based options. I suspect that would be more interesting to Chipotle than an altrustic motivation of reducing the amount of chicken eaten