Based on this, I think it is plausible the nearterm effects of any intervention are driven by the effects on wild animals, namely arthropods and nematodes. For example, in the context of global health and development (see here):
If this is so, the expected nearterm effects of neartermist interventions (including ones attempting to improve the welfare of farmed animals) are also quite uncertain, in the sense they can easily be positive or negative. I still expect neartermist interventions to be positive due to their longterm effects. However, expecting them to be better than longtermist ones would be a surprising and suspicious convergence.
Thanks for pointing this out, Max!
Based on this, I think it is plausible the nearterm effects of any intervention are driven by the effects on wild animals, namely arthropods and nematodes. For example, in the context of global health and development (see here):
If this is so, the expected nearterm effects of neartermist interventions (including ones attempting to improve the welfare of farmed animals) are also quite uncertain, in the sense they can easily be positive or negative. I still expect neartermist interventions to be positive due to their longterm effects. However, expecting them to be better than longtermist ones would be a surprising and suspicious convergence.