Does the relative amount of evidence and uncertainty affect your thinking at all? I have heard indirectly of people working in longtermism who donate to neartermist causes because they think it hedges the very large uncertainties of longtermism (both longtermist work and donations).
As you say, the neartermist donation options recommended by EA benefit from very robust evidence, observable feedback loops, tried-and-tested organisations etc., and that could be a good hedge if you’re working in an area of much higher uncertainty.
Does the relative amount of evidence and uncertainty affect your thinking at all? I have heard indirectly of people working in longtermism who donate to neartermist causes because they think it hedges the very large uncertainties of longtermism (both longtermist work and donations).
As you say, the neartermist donation options recommended by EA benefit from very robust evidence, observable feedback loops, tried-and-tested organisations etc., and that could be a good hedge if you’re working in an area of much higher uncertainty.