Executive summary: Transformative AI (TAI) is a useful milestone for AI scenario analysis, focusing on the socio-technical impact of advanced AI systems that could fundamentally transform society, without requiring specific forms like AGI or ASI.
Key points:
TAI is defined as AI causing significant, irreversible changes broad enough to impact all of society, comparable to the agricultural or industrial revolutions.
TAI could be achieved without human-level AGI or ASI, e.g. through mass automation, ending scarcity, enabling stable totalitarianism, or engineered pandemics.
Revolutionary technologies are general-purpose technologies that fundamentally transform economic production, which AI may achieve through widespread task automation.
“Competent” AGI performing better than 50% of skilled adults may be sufficient for TAI and rapid social change.
The agricultural and industrial revolutions transformed society by changing which tasks were valuable to complete, which AI is now doing.
There may be significant time delays between TAI development, deployment, and societal transformation, but adoption is accelerating and AGI agents could act rapidly.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, andcontact us if you have feedback.
Executive summary: Transformative AI (TAI) is a useful milestone for AI scenario analysis, focusing on the socio-technical impact of advanced AI systems that could fundamentally transform society, without requiring specific forms like AGI or ASI.
Key points:
TAI is defined as AI causing significant, irreversible changes broad enough to impact all of society, comparable to the agricultural or industrial revolutions.
TAI could be achieved without human-level AGI or ASI, e.g. through mass automation, ending scarcity, enabling stable totalitarianism, or engineered pandemics.
Revolutionary technologies are general-purpose technologies that fundamentally transform economic production, which AI may achieve through widespread task automation.
“Competent” AGI performing better than 50% of skilled adults may be sufficient for TAI and rapid social change.
The agricultural and industrial revolutions transformed society by changing which tasks were valuable to complete, which AI is now doing.
There may be significant time delays between TAI development, deployment, and societal transformation, but adoption is accelerating and AGI agents could act rapidly.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.