My personal timelines have also gotten considerably shorter over this period. I now expect something roughly like this:
~15% probability by 2030 (a decrease of ~6 years from 2036).
~35% probability by 2036 (a ~3x likelihood ratio[3] vs 15%).
This implies that each year in the 6 year period from 2030 to 2036 has an average of over 3% probability of TAI occurring in that particular year (smaller earlier and larger later).
A median of ~2040 (a decrease of ~10 years from 2050).
This implies that each year in the 4 year period from 2036 to 2040 has an average of almost 4% probability of TAI.
~60% probability by 2050 (a ~1.5x likelihood ratio vs 50%).
Ajeya posted an update to her AI timelines report: