I just noticed this post and the ensuing discussion. I want to share a model I recently made which seeks to answer the question: are these protests beneficial or harmful.
The expected deaths caused by COVID spread outnumber the expected lives saved from reducing police brutality by a factor of 16.
If we adjust for QALYs (COVID mainly kills older folks), the COVID mortality is still worse than the reduction in police killings, though only by a factor of 5.
When I estimate a general positive impact of these protests upon America’s political system—specifically, that they’ll increase Democratic voteshare this November—it seems that the protests are neutral as far as American citizens are concerned, but (more importantly of course) positive when we include foreigners and animals.
I want to say upfront that this doesn’t mean I endorse the protests, I still feel a bit negative about them due to the prisoner’s dilemma at play (as in Larks’ highly upvoted comment in the other thread, I also came up with the same point).
I haven’t looked into this in any detail myself, but I wonder if other benefits for American POC could be more important than the prevented deaths, e.g. poverty, mental health and other crisis services, plea bargaining, imprisonment and sentencing. I think this could open a broader conversation about criminal justice. Some of this could come from a Dem presidency, but it might be addressed at state or more local levels, too.
I just noticed this post and the ensuing discussion. I want to share a model I recently made which seeks to answer the question: are these protests beneficial or harmful.
https://www.getguesstimate.com/models/16272
In summary:
The expected deaths caused by COVID spread outnumber the expected lives saved from reducing police brutality by a factor of 16.
If we adjust for QALYs (COVID mainly kills older folks), the COVID mortality is still worse than the reduction in police killings, though only by a factor of 5.
When I estimate a general positive impact of these protests upon America’s political system—specifically, that they’ll increase Democratic voteshare this November—it seems that the protests are neutral as far as American citizens are concerned, but (more importantly of course) positive when we include foreigners and animals.
I want to say upfront that this doesn’t mean I endorse the protests, I still feel a bit negative about them due to the prisoner’s dilemma at play (as in Larks’ highly upvoted comment in the other thread, I also came up with the same point).
I haven’t looked into this in any detail myself, but I wonder if other benefits for American POC could be more important than the prevented deaths, e.g. poverty, mental health and other crisis services, plea bargaining, imprisonment and sentencing. I think this could open a broader conversation about criminal justice. Some of this could come from a Dem presidency, but it might be addressed at state or more local levels, too.