Forecasts:
Metaculus: 40% that it passes (n=69)
Manifold:
39% that it passes (n=191)
69% that it makes it to Gov. Newsom (n=32), which implies a 58% chance of a Newsom veto
22% that Anthropic publicly endorses the bill (n=45)
Forecasts:
Metaculus: 40% that it passes (n=69)
Manifold:
39% that it passes (n=191)
69% that it makes it to Gov. Newsom (n=32), which implies a 58% chance of a Newsom veto
22% that Anthropic publicly endorses the bill (n=45)