AI safety is such a new field that I don’t expect you need to be a genius to do anything groundbreaking.
They claim to be working on areas like game theory, decision theory, and mathematical logic, which are all well-developed fields of study. I see no reason to think those fields have lots of low-hanging fruit that would allow average researchers to make huge breakthroughs. Sure, they have a new angle on those fields, but does a new angle really overcome their lack of an impressive research track-record?
But I expect them to be better at AI safety research because MIRI has been working on it for longer and has a stronger grasp of the technical challenges.
Do they have a stronger grasp of the technical challenges? They’re certainly opinionated about what it will take to make AI safe, but their (public) justifications for those opinions look pretty flimsy.
They claim to be working on areas like game theory, decision theory, and mathematical logic, which are all well-developed fields of study. I see no reason to think those fields have lots of low-hanging fruit that would allow average researchers to make huge breakthroughs. Sure, they have a new angle on those fields, but does a new angle really overcome their lack of an impressive research track-record?
Do they have a stronger grasp of the technical challenges? They’re certainly opinionated about what it will take to make AI safe, but their (public) justifications for those opinions look pretty flimsy.