I think of this as more of a definitional issue than a probability issue. Given functionalism about consciousness, if the population of China managed to implement the necessary function of consciousness, then this system would be conscious. The problem is that, on my view, the function of consciousness is likely so complicated and specific that for the population of China to implement it, the “population of China” would be basically unrecognizable as “the population of China.” Hence, I think the Chinese nation thought experiment is a misleading intuition pump.
What probability would you assign to a China brain being conscious?
I think of this as more of a definitional issue than a probability issue. Given functionalism about consciousness, if the population of China managed to implement the necessary function of consciousness, then this system would be conscious. The problem is that, on my view, the function of consciousness is likely so complicated and specific that for the population of China to implement it, the “population of China” would be basically unrecognizable as “the population of China.” Hence, I think the Chinese nation thought experiment is a misleading intuition pump.