Without Delay: There is a 10% chance of catastrophe.
With a Cautious Delay of 70 Years: The risk of catastrophe is reduced to 5%.
Could you post a link to anyone who has something like these probabilities? I would be quite surprised to learn that this was not an extremely niche set of assumptions.
The numbers are there to demonstrate the point that if you have a very positive effect from AGI and a large amount of future generations, there is the potential for a divergence of choices depending on whether you’re accounting for future lives.
You can plug in the numbers that you would like… The point is not to advance these specific probabilities.
Could you post a link to anyone who has something like these probabilities? I would be quite surprised to learn that this was not an extremely niche set of assumptions.
The numbers are there to demonstrate the point that if you have a very positive effect from AGI and a large amount of future generations, there is the potential for a divergence of choices depending on whether you’re accounting for future lives.
You can plug in the numbers that you would like… The point is not to advance these specific probabilities.