The higher you think the bar is the more likely it is that longtermist things and neartermist things will converge. At the very top they will almost certainly converge as you are stuck doing mostly things that can be justified with RCTs or similar levels of evidence.
I’m not sure anything would be fully justified with RCTs or similar levels of evidence, since most effects can’t be measured in practice (especially far future effects), so we’re left using weaker evidence for most effects or just ignoring them.
I’m not sure anything would be fully justified with RCTs or similar levels of evidence, since most effects can’t be measured in practice (especially far future effects), so we’re left using weaker evidence for most effects or just ignoring them.
Yes good point. In practice that bar is too high to get much done.