I’m considering writing a post on how I think governments are likely to respond to the tax, spending, and inequality pressures that transformative AI will bring.
Others have already pointed out that if TAI displaces a lot of workers, this will reduce tax revenue (as most countries’ tax bases rely heavily on labour income) while increasing government spending (to pay for benefits to support people out of work). I’ve also read some articles suggesting we’ll need a high degree of global coordination in order to make sure AI’s benefits are widely distributed.
I agree global coordination on tax would be the first best solution, but I also think it is highly unlikely to happen. However:
I think there are things individual countries can (and hopefully will) do to mitigate national inequality;
I’m not sure TAI will worsen global inequality (I think it probably will, but not by as much as I initially thought); and
I don’t think governments are going to go broke everywhere (I don’t this is actually possible). We will likely see significant economic disruptions and maybe a few defaults, but the fiscal situation may not be as bad as some people seem to think.
I’m not sure exactly where I’ll end up with it, but my hope is to outline a few realistic pathways that will help people (including myself) decide where best to focus their efforts.
Please let me know if you’d be willing to read drafts or act as a sounding board — I would very much appreciate the help.
I’m considering writing a post on how I think governments are likely to respond to the tax, spending, and inequality pressures that transformative AI will bring.
Others have already pointed out that if TAI displaces a lot of workers, this will reduce tax revenue (as most countries’ tax bases rely heavily on labour income) while increasing government spending (to pay for benefits to support people out of work). I’ve also read some articles suggesting we’ll need a high degree of global coordination in order to make sure AI’s benefits are widely distributed.
I agree global coordination on tax would be the first best solution, but I also think it is highly unlikely to happen. However:
I think there are things individual countries can (and hopefully will) do to mitigate national inequality;
I’m not sure TAI will worsen global inequality (I think it probably will, but not by as much as I initially thought); and
I don’t think governments are going to go broke everywhere (I don’t this is actually possible). We will likely see significant economic disruptions and maybe a few defaults, but the fiscal situation may not be as bad as some people seem to think.
I’m not sure exactly where I’ll end up with it, but my hope is to outline a few realistic pathways that will help people (including myself) decide where best to focus their efforts.
Please let me know if you’d be willing to read drafts or act as a sounding board — I would very much appreciate the help.
Hi! I’d be happy to help with proofreading/editing for flow and finesse. Let me DM you.