I’d be interested in seeing this too! Although I’m not planning to spend the time to do this soon, I’d be up for having a quick chat if someone else was up for it. The constant risk model seems to me like a better-than-nothing model, so could be a slight update if it gives different results. Or could just use a linear increase of probability from 0 years to 10 years.
FWIW—from this survey alone, I’m not convinced that timelines are systematically longer with a fixed-year framing. I sampled ten forecasts where probabilities were given in both framings on a 10 year timescale, and five of them (Subtitles, Transcribe, Top forty, Random game, Explain) gave later forecasts when asked with ‘probability in N years’ rather than ‘year that the probability is M’, three of them (Video scene, Read aloud, Atari) gave the same forecasts, and two of them (Rosetta, Taylor) gave an earlier forecast. So from this sample, it seems they’re commonly longer.
I’d be interested in seeing this too! Although I’m not planning to spend the time to do this soon, I’d be up for having a quick chat if someone else was up for it. The constant risk model seems to me like a better-than-nothing model, so could be a slight update if it gives different results. Or could just use a linear increase of probability from 0 years to 10 years.
FWIW—from this survey alone, I’m not convinced that timelines are systematically longer with a fixed-year framing. I sampled ten forecasts where probabilities were given in both framings on a 10 year timescale, and five of them (Subtitles, Transcribe, Top forty, Random game, Explain) gave later forecasts when asked with ‘probability in N years’ rather than ‘year that the probability is M’, three of them (Video scene, Read aloud, Atari) gave the same forecasts, and two of them (Rosetta, Taylor) gave an earlier forecast. So from this sample, it seems they’re commonly longer.