AI takeoff: continuous or discontinuous?
I don’t know. When I try to make fake mathematical models of how AI progress works, they mostly come out looking pretty continuous. And AI Impacts has successfully pushed my intuitions in a slow takeoff direction, by exhaustively cataloging all the technologies which didn’t seem to have discontinuous jumps in efficiency. But on the other hand it sometimes feels like there’s something that has to “click” before you can have your systems being smart in some important way; this pushes me towards a discontinuous model. Overall I feel very confused.
When I talk to Paul Christiano about takeoff I feel persuaded by his arguments for slow takeoff, when I talk to many MIRI people I feel somewhat persuaded by their arguments for fast takeoff.