I’m a community moderator at Metaculus and am generally interested in creating more EA-relevant questions. Are your predictions explicitly listed somewhere? It would be great to add at least some of them to the site.
Hey Pablo! I think Andres has a few up on Metaculus; I just posted QRI’s latest piece of neuroscience here, which has a bunch of predictions (though I haven’t separated them out from the text):
I think it would be worthwhile to separate these out from the text, and (especially) to generate predictions that are crisp, distinctive, and can be resolved in the near term. The QRI questions on metaculus are admirably crisp (and fairly near term), but not distinctive (they are about whether certain drugs will be licensed for certain conditions—or whether evidence will emerge supporting drug X for condition Y, which offer very limited evidence for QRI’s wider account ‘either way’).
This is somewhat more promising from your most recent post:
I’d expect to see substantially less energy in low-frequency CSHWs [Connectome-Specific Harmonic Waves] after trauma, and substantially more energy in low-frequency CSHWs during both therapeutic psychedelic use (e.g. MDMA therapy) and during psychological integration work.
This is crisp, plausibly distinctive, yet resolving this requires a lot of neuroimaging work which (presumably) won’t be conducted anytime soon. In the interim, there isn’t much to persuade a sceptical prior.
Hey Mike,
I’m a community moderator at Metaculus and am generally interested in creating more EA-relevant questions. Are your predictions explicitly listed somewhere? It would be great to add at least some of them to the site.
Hey Pablo! I think Andres has a few up on Metaculus; I just posted QRI’s latest piece of neuroscience here, which has a bunch of predictions (though I haven’t separated them out from the text):
https://opentheory.net/2019/11/neural-annealing-toward-a-neural-theory-of-everything/
I think it would be worthwhile to separate these out from the text, and (especially) to generate predictions that are crisp, distinctive, and can be resolved in the near term. The QRI questions on metaculus are admirably crisp (and fairly near term), but not distinctive (they are about whether certain drugs will be licensed for certain conditions—or whether evidence will emerge supporting drug X for condition Y, which offer very limited evidence for QRI’s wider account ‘either way’).
This is somewhat more promising from your most recent post:
This is crisp, plausibly distinctive, yet resolving this requires a lot of neuroimaging work which (presumably) won’t be conducted anytime soon. In the interim, there isn’t much to persuade a sceptical prior.