A very interesting piece, my initial reaction to GiveWell’s splitting approach was similar to yours. Via the comments in that Dec 15 blogpost on the GiveWell website we narrowed the point of disagreement between myself and Holden to the effectiveness of Good Ventures’ future giving opportunities.
At some time GV hope to (and I believe will) have made themselves experts in donation, having much more information than they do now about how to give best. However, given the pace at which the world is improving through economic growth and the impact of other charitable donations, I am concerned/hopeful that there will not be such low hanging fruit as exists and has been identified by GW right now. However, I also believe the people within GW/GV/OPP have considered this and have more information than me to make the decision. Still, until convinced I remain in the belief that GV should look to contribute Z—Y to GW’s top charities, where Z is the total room for more funding (in the top 5 categories of priority) and Y is the total expected amount from other donors.
Holden, to put it your terms I agree with your ‘broad market efficiency’ assumption, and I don’t doubt your ability to be able to beat the market in time given the work you are putting in. However, I do believe that the market rate of return changes over time. As more competing capital flows in to Effective Altruism and the number of opportunities to cheaply saves lives diminish, the market rate is likely to be lowered dramatically. Therefore, you could end up dramatically beating the market in a number of years time, and still end up with a rate of effectiveness which is lower than the current market rate.
Ben, to point 2) I would echo what Holden says and add the following:
Aside from the direct impact GiveWell has by influencing donations in the short term, I think it is also adding a huge amount of value by the way it is changing the whole way in which people think about philanthropy and charitable donation. The most important thing Good Ventures can do for GiveWell is provide it with a stable funding base and positive signalling, by donating large amounts to the top rated charities. This I think is an excellent argument for GV’s current approach even if they believe they will have better opportunities to give in future, comparing purely on direct impact.
A very interesting piece, my initial reaction to GiveWell’s splitting approach was similar to yours. Via the comments in that Dec 15 blogpost on the GiveWell website we narrowed the point of disagreement between myself and Holden to the effectiveness of Good Ventures’ future giving opportunities.
At some time GV hope to (and I believe will) have made themselves experts in donation, having much more information than they do now about how to give best. However, given the pace at which the world is improving through economic growth and the impact of other charitable donations, I am concerned/hopeful that there will not be such low hanging fruit as exists and has been identified by GW right now. However, I also believe the people within GW/GV/OPP have considered this and have more information than me to make the decision. Still, until convinced I remain in the belief that GV should look to contribute Z—Y to GW’s top charities, where Z is the total room for more funding (in the top 5 categories of priority) and Y is the total expected amount from other donors.
Holden, to put it your terms I agree with your ‘broad market efficiency’ assumption, and I don’t doubt your ability to be able to beat the market in time given the work you are putting in. However, I do believe that the market rate of return changes over time. As more competing capital flows in to Effective Altruism and the number of opportunities to cheaply saves lives diminish, the market rate is likely to be lowered dramatically. Therefore, you could end up dramatically beating the market in a number of years time, and still end up with a rate of effectiveness which is lower than the current market rate.
Ben, to point 2) I would echo what Holden says and add the following: Aside from the direct impact GiveWell has by influencing donations in the short term, I think it is also adding a huge amount of value by the way it is changing the whole way in which people think about philanthropy and charitable donation. The most important thing Good Ventures can do for GiveWell is provide it with a stable funding base and positive signalling, by donating large amounts to the top rated charities. This I think is an excellent argument for GV’s current approach even if they believe they will have better opportunities to give in future, comparing purely on direct impact.