That’s true! Fortunately, there are a few important mitigating factors:
This game proceeds in continuous time, so there’s plenty of opportunity for donors to inform each other of their actions. For the GiveWell top charities, this often happens by reporting the donation to—or making it through—GiveWell.
As you’ve pointed out, excess donations—if they in fact turn out to be excess—can simply be funged against implicitly via lower room for more funding estimates in the following year.
A commitment to full funding doesn’t have to take the form of initially giving them the whole amount—for instance, if the estimated funding gap is X, and GV would expect other donors to contribute amount X-Y if it weren’t around, it can give Y, monitor other donations, and fill in gaps as they occur. It could even wait until after “giving season” to get more info.
That’s true! Fortunately, there are a few important mitigating factors:
This game proceeds in continuous time, so there’s plenty of opportunity for donors to inform each other of their actions. For the GiveWell top charities, this often happens by reporting the donation to—or making it through—GiveWell.
As you’ve pointed out, excess donations—if they in fact turn out to be excess—can simply be funged against implicitly via lower room for more funding estimates in the following year.
A commitment to full funding doesn’t have to take the form of initially giving them the whole amount—for instance, if the estimated funding gap is X, and GV would expect other donors to contribute amount X-Y if it weren’t around, it can give Y, monitor other donations, and fill in gaps as they occur. It could even wait until after “giving season” to get more info.